GDP

Oil revenues & private sector growth to speed up GCC economic recovery in 2022

As the world charts its recovery from COVID-19’s impact, businesses and trade around the world begin to hit normalcy, reviving the global demand for oil and consequently the global oil prices. As of August’21, price of IPE Brent is up nearly 41% year to date. OPEC+ is firm on its stance of cutting oil production until mid-2022, this is set to support global oil prices and provide renewed vigour for GCC economies. According to Institute of International Finance (IIF), the...

Economic recovery post COVID-19: How they stack up for GCC economies?

GCC economies were hit hard by the pandemic last year with the cumulative GDP of the region falling by 5% in 2020 over that of 2019. However, the IMF estimates all the GCC economies to show positive growth in 2021 with Saudi Arabia expected to grow 2.9%, UAE by 3.1%, Qatar by 2.4%, Kuwait by 0.7%, Oman GDP Growth in % from 2020-2022 Source: IMF 2021 MECA Regional Outlook Macro indicators have improved in the GCC The improved projections are...

UAE’s 100% foreign ownership will boost investor confidence, cut cost of operations

The UAE’s announcement of 100 per cent foreign ownership across the board effective June 1, is touted as game changing and a master stroke. This was the biggest demand from various business councils for decades. The current system requires 51 per cent local sponsorship along with majority representation in the board with the Chair being Emirati. In a country where more than 80 per cent of the population are expats and where the economy is fairly better diversified than their...

IMF forecasts steeper fall in GCC countries’ 2020 GDP

As the world charts its recovery from COVID-19’s impact amidst the resurgence of cases in some countries and lingering threat of spike in others, the countries’ recovery path and economic outlook are being closely watched. IMF in its recent World Economic Outlook (October 2020) has revised GDP forecasts for GCC countries downwards from its April forecast, citing deeper-than-expected impact of lockdowns on mobility and weak global growth. For GCC as a whole, IMF expects GDP to contract by 6% in...

Is Debt to GDP Ratio a good explanatory of country risk?

The Debt to GDP ratio is often taken as a measure to explain the risk rating associated with the Sovereign rating for that country. In this article we attempt to shed light on other explanatory variables for Sovereign ratings other than Debt to GDP ratio. Debt to GDP ratio of a country is a very important variable that determines the country’s Sovereign risk rating as it reflects the الدولة’s ability to service its debt. However, for lower income countries the...